One team’s fortunes are about to change on Tuesday.

That’s when Major League Table Tennis (MLTT) will hold its lottery for the Season 4 Draft. One of the six teams that missed the postseason will receive the No. 1 overall pick. That team will have the power to welcome Quadri Aruna, Takuya Jin or any other star that has declared for this year’s draft.

Any of the six teams will celebrate after winning the No. 1 pick, but for different reasons. Some teams will be able to choose whomever they want to become the next face of their franchise. Others can pair their top player with another star of their choosing. Some look to enter their first postseason appearance in team history, while others hope to use this pick to return to a Championship Weekend they’re not used to missing.

Of course, having the No. 1 pick won’t automatically guarantee a team a superstar, as the league’s golden points and Golden Games are difficult adjustments for any player. But Enzo Angles (SPINDEX: 2774), Liam Pitchford (2897) and Yuya Oshima (2779) have all shown why their teams selected them first overall in previous drafts, and history suggests that this year’s top pick should be no exception. 

All of the following teams want to make the playoffs as soon as possible, and adding any Season 4 draft of their choice to their rosters will certainly make that goal easier. That’s a privilege granted only to the team that wins the No. 1 overall pick on Tuesday.

‍Florida Crocs (Odds to Win: 28.6%)

A season-ending injury for Pitchford. Absences from Peiyu Zhu (2570) and Asuka Sakai (2748) at inopportune moments. Being forced to rely on free agents at key positions nearly every week. The Florida Crocs have suffered throughout their nightmare Season 3, which ended with them receiving the lowest winning percentage in all of MLTT (.347).

They didn’t suffer for nothing, though. That winning percentage offered Florida a 28.6% chance of winning the Season 4 Draft Lottery, the highest odds of any MLTT team. That gives them the best chance of selecting a potential face of the Crocs, especially with Pitchford’s future in Florida uncertain.

Florida is certainly not bereft of talent. Marc Duran (2649) is one of the league’s best players when he’s backed away from the table, and he’s expected to be joined by Sakai and Daniel Gorak (2670) next season. They’re all great players, but they were pushed to their limits last season. Pitchford’s untimely injury forced those players to face opposing teams’ best players all season long, and having a player like Aruna anchoring the lineup every week should mitigate the Crocs’ need to force their other players in these different roles. Angel Naranjo (2613) and Chihweh Yeh (2644) can keep dominating in Doubles. An absence would no longer force the Crocs to scramble to find a replacement.

If those odds fall in their favor, Frank Arias will become the first coach to select first overall twice in MLTT history. If they don’t, they’ll still have a favorable selection. The lottery will last until three different teams are drawn, and those three teams will receive the top three picks in the order they were drawn. The final three lottery picks will be determined based on reverse order of winning percentage, which means that the lowest Florida can select is fourth overall. But No. 4 isn’t No. 1, and the Crocs would rather choose which star will become their top player for the next several seasons.

‍Atlanta Blazers (Odds to Win: 23.8%)

First impressions aren’t easy. That’s what the Atlanta Blazers would say after they finished their first season as an MLTT team with a winning percentage of .410. But the Blazers have something that most teams in their position would not have: a discernible core. They’ve got Oshima, a man the Blazers can trust with the team’s toughest assignments. They have Kayama Yu (2804), a threat in both Singles (57.8%) and Doubles (55.6%). They have Tom Feng (2657) and Jeet Chandra (2634), two skilled veterans who have helped their teammates adjust to the fast pace and golden points of MLTT.

What will that core look like one season from now? It’s hard to say, given that this core was built by Suzi Battison, who stepped down from her position at the end of Season 3. The team’s new decision-maker is Koji Itagaki, the longtime coach of Table Tennis Bundesliga’s TSV Bad Konigshofen. He now gets a chance to reshape the Blazers’ roster the way he sees fit, which could include the first overall pick in this year’s MLTT Draft. Could that pick be used to form a devastating Big Three alongside Oshima and Kayama? Could that player be a threat in Doubles? Will they choose a young player with sky-high potential, or a living legend with experience against the world’s best table tennis players?

No matter who or where they select, the Blazers all but need their first-round pick to become a star. They lost their second-round pick in the Rachel Sung (2521) trade in December, which means they’ll have to wait two whole rounds before they can select another player. It’s important for the Blazers to be confident in their first-round selection. And if they win the No. 1 overall pick, they only need to be confident in just one player.

‍Bay Area Blasters (Odds to Win: 19%)

A lot went wrong for the Blasters this year. Taehyun Kim (2730), the co-MVP of Season 2, suffered a foot injury that limited his mobility and availability throughout the first half of Season 3. Their first-round pick last April, Yan Cheng Huang, did not play in a single match this season. Jinbao Ma (2756) and Lily Zhang (2606) missed Week 14, which was the Blasters’ final chance to reach the postseason. This disaster of a season is thankfully over for the Blasters, and it ended with the lowest winning percentage in the West Division (.472).

Despite that standing, the Blasters still possess one of the strongest cores in all of MLTT. Zhang is still one of the league’s best women. Elsayed Lashin (2712) won two Player of the Week Awards this season. Kim and Ma caught fire near the end of Season 3. Any pick the Blasters select this year can only add to this talented roster. And if they get their choice of any Season 4 Draft candidate, they could trot out a six-player lineup of Lashin, Zhang, Kim, Baek Kwang-il (2608), Ma and the No. 1 overall pick for nearly every game.

The Blasters are one star player away from having the most lethal lineup in all of MLTT from top to bottom. In fact, they might already be at that stage, as much of Bay Area’s misfortune came from factors outside of its control. Week 12 proved that a complete Blasters team can finish a weekend 3-0 against playoff teams. And if Tim Wang gets to choose whomever he wants to complete the Blasters’ roster, then there’s not much stopping them on their way to a postseason run of their own next year.

‍Los Angeles Spinners (Odds to Win: 14.3%)

The Los Angeles Spinners had plenty of issues throughout Season 3. Talent was not one of them. Several of the sport’s most renowned stars play for the Spinners, including Ľubomír Pištej (2717), Matilda Ekholm (2584) and Aditya Sareen (2704), and they led the Spinners to a late-season surge that showed how dominant the Spinners could be at their best. But that surge was too late. They couldn’t overcome an unforgettable first half that included heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss, and they became the first team to be eliminated from postseason contention after losing their final Week 13 match.

That could be a blessing in disguise for the Spinners, who will entrust head coach Romain Lorentz to select their next star in the Season 4 MLTT Draft. That’s exactly what he did last season, when he selected Alexandre Robinot (2760) with the fifth overall pick. Robinot routinely took on his opponents’ best players in both Singles 1 and Singles 4, and he often came out victorious. But did he adjust to the league’s unique rulebook? His Golden Game percentage of 57.1% suggested that he absolutely did.

Lorentz saw Robinot’s success at the highest levels of table tennis, and he correctly predicted that his game could translate to MLTT. If Lorentz could do that with the fifth overall pick, imagine what he could do with the first pick. There’s no telling what type of player Lorentz could bring to the Spinners, and there’s certainly no telling what such an addition to that roster can do for the Spinners’ playoff ambitions for several years down the line.

‍Texas Smash (Odds to Win: 9.5%)

It feels weird seeing the Texas Smash in an article like this. They won the first-ever MLTT Championship two years ago, and they’re just one season removed from being the West Division’s representative in the MLTT Championship Match. No other West Division team has ever played in the league’s ultimate match, because the Smash have been that dominant throughout all of MLTT’s history. It’s hard to be dominant without your head coach, though. Jorg Bitzigeio couldn’t be present for any of his team’s matches this season, leaving the Smash without their coach for the entirety of the season. Such a scenario can spell disaster for even the league’s best team. Texas included. They’re missing Championship Weekend for the first time ever.

The Smash don’t intend to compete for top draft selections for much longer, though. Much of their current core is expected to return, several of whom were on the Smash’s title-winning team in Season 1. Any further additions will be made by English table tennis icon Paul Drinkhall, whom the Smash have tabbed as their next head coach. That includes the draft, which Bitzigeio has commanded since the Smash were established. Only time will tell if Drinkhall will conduct a championship-winning draft like his predecessor did two years ago, but the odds of that happening certainly increase if Texas wins its first No. 1 overall pick in league history.

If that happens, Texas has an opportunity to select its anchor for years to come. Hiromitsu Kasahara (2726) served as that anchor throughout much of Season 3, but placing him in that fixed role limits his versatility. Having a sure thing in Singles 1 or Singles 4 will allow Kasahara to play all over the roster, a skill that few players are better at than he is. He can play in whichever spot the new player doesn’t play. He can complement David McBeath (2700) or Guodong Liang (2682) in Doubles. That roster flexibility allows Texas the opportunity to adapt and adjust to whichever team they face on a given night. And that adaptability often leads to wins, something the Smash are more familiar with than any other team in the league.

‍New York Slice (Odds to Win: 4.8%)

Adam Hugh had three selections in the Season 3 MLTT Draft. His first-round pick ended up being Koki Niwa (2797), who became one of the league’s most dangerous players in his first season. His second-round pick became Yiran Wu (2671), a player who often punched above his weight as a rookie. His third-round pick became Haeeun Choi (2533), who won two Women’s Player of the Week awards this past season.

Those three players helped lead New York to a 10-8 season, which is the best record of all non-postseason teams. Most expansion teams don’t expect to find success in their first seasons, but the Slice almost made it to Championship Weekend. If not for the Princeton Revolution’s miraculous Week 15, the Slice would have booked tickets to Fremont, Calif., two weeks ago instead of watching the playoffs on Table Tennis TV.

The Slice’s season had some intense ups and downs. After a very auspicious start to their Season 3, the Slice ran out of steam starting in Week 8. That’s when it became clear that the team’s performances largely depended on Niwa. If he was playing well, the Slice were winning. If he wasn’t, they were losing. It’s a trend that lasted throughout the season, but what if Niwa didn’t have to bear so much of the Slice’s burden? Earning the No. 1 overall pick allows Hugh the ability to pair Niwa with any draft candidate of Hugh’s choice, allowing the Slice to have a much more balanced roster. And given how close the Slice were to making the playoffs without that luxury, it’s almost scary to think about how good they would be with a second star.

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